Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
